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Main
Date: 07 Jul 2007 12:34:06
From:
Subject: How fast was Cancellara?
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http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png
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Date: 25 Jul 2007 05:14:23
From: RicodJour
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
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On Jul 25, 5:50 am, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Jul 12, 12:58 am, Michael Press <rub...@pacbell.net> wrote:
>
> > Suppose you have a distribution
> > and you know or asssume that it has a finite mean and
> > variance, and _nothing_ else. Then it is a theorem that
> > your best chance at being close to right is to assume
> > that it is normally distributed.
>
> What theorem is that?
The Assume I'm Right Theorem. It's used all of the time and I assumed
you knew about it. Otherwise someone has to use loser terms to couch
their predictions/research, hinting at the possibility of error/
failure. Scientific research needs a high confidence level - one or
greater, if possible - to make the results believable.
R
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Date: 25 Jul 2007 02:50:23
From:
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
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On Jul 12, 12:58 am, Michael Press <rub...@pacbell.net > wrote:
> Suppose you have a distribution
> and you know or asssume that it has a finite mean and
> variance, and _nothing_ else. Then it is a theorem that
> your best chance at being close to right is to assume
> that it is normally distributed.
What theorem is that?
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Date: 25 Jul 2007 17:54:10
From: Michael Press
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
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In article
<1185357023.480919.78710@19g2000hsx.googlegroups.com >,
rechungREMOVETHIS@gmail.com wrote:
> On Jul 12, 12:58 am, Michael Press <rub...@pacbell.net> wrote:
> > Suppose you have a distribution
> > and you know or asssume that it has a finite mean and
> > variance, and _nothing_ else. Then it is a theorem that
> > your best chance at being close to right is to assume
> > that it is normally distributed.
>
> What theorem is that?
Section 2.2. in
Bretthorst, G. Larry, 1988,
`Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and Parameter Estimation,'
in Lecture Notes in Statistics, 48,
Springer-Verlag, New York, New York.
--
Michael Press
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Date: 11 Jul 2007 19:53:17
From: amit.ghosh@gmail.com
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
On Jul 11, 3:07 am, "b...@mambo.ucolick.org" <b...@mambo.ucolick.org >
wrote:
> On Jul 7, 8:13 pm, "amit.gh...@gmail.com" <amit.gh...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> > On Jul 7, 6:22 pm, Kurgan Gringioni <kgringi...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> > > Turn the graph on its side and it's half of the classic bell-shaped
> > > curve.
>
> > dumbass,
>
> > your "observation" is non-sensical. you aren't looking at a probabilty
> > distribution. if you binned the riders' times and plotted you would
> > have a bell-shaped curve centered at about 48 kph
>
> > what's notable are the gaps from 1st-2nd and 2nd-3rd. in a competitive
> > TT the chung chart should look sort-of logarithmic, plateauing at the
> > fastest riders. without the "flip up" at the top.
>
> Dumbasses,
>
> I agree with Greg. Cancellara's time is less suspicious than
> your ideas of what the distribution "should" look like. Let's
> say it is (as Dan pointed out) mostly non-prologue specialists
> with a few specialists thrown in. One might expect the
> non-specialists to have sort of random ability. Even if you
> think it's a normal distribution, though, normal in what
> variable? Time? Speed? Power? Something that's
> normal in one will be skewed in the others. Plus the
> specialists are going to skew the distribution, creating
> a tail to high speeds.
dumbass,
true, but it is speed that is plotted on that vertical axis.
the increase in physical ability required to go from 52 to 53 kph is a
lot more than the difference to go from 46 to 47 kph. that is why i
would expect to see the curve flatten out.
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Date: 11 Jul 2007 18:46:17
From: SLAVE of THE STATE
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
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On Jul 11, 3:58 pm, Michael Press <rub...@pacbell.net > wrote:
> In article
> <1184137632.969851.159...@j4g2000prf.googlegroups.com>,
> "b...@mambo.ucolick.org" <b...@mambo.ucolick.org>
>
> wrote:
> > Show me a data set that's normally distributed and I'll
> > show you data where someone fudged the outliers away.
>
> Calling a distribution normal is to throw in the towel.
> If you cannot say more than, "it is normally
> distributes", is as good as shrugging your shoulders
> and saying "I dunno."
Sometimes it also says: "nothing got fucked up. good."
> Suppose you have a distribution
> and you know or asssume that it has a finite mean and
> variance, and _nothing_ else. Then it is a theorem that
> your best chance at being close to right is to assume
> that it is normally distributed. People should strive
> to show how their data is not normal. In that way they
> are extracting information. Once you get to the point
> that the noise is normally distributed, you have
> extracted all the information.
>
> --
> Michael Press
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Date: 11 Jul 2007 07:10:06
From: bjw@mambo.ucolick.org
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
On Jul 9, 7:35 am, Simon Brooke <s...@jasmine.org.uk > wrote:
>
> >> So: he's the best time triallist in the world, he's won the white
> >> jersey, he's shown he has the stamina to finish a grand tour; and he's
> >> shown he can climb.
>
> >> Fabian Cancellara is going to be a GC contender - if not this year, th=
en
> >> soon.
>
> > Cancellara is what they used to call a "rouleur". And probably the
> > best of them nowadays.
> > Tall, heavy (for a pro cyclist), and a huge absolute power output.
> > The guy can even sprint amongst the best.
>
> > Remember, it was during the EPO years when guys like him suddenly
> > became GC contenders.
> > And everyone wanted to be the next Indurain.
> > Olano, Z=FClle, Honchar, Botero, Ullrich, Rogers come to mind. Surprise,
> > these were all Worlds TT champs...
>
> It's not strength, it's skill
> and daring. The same qualities make for a great descender. If Cancellara
> can get enough upper-body weight off to become an adequate climber, he's a
> GC contender. He doesn't need to become a super climber.
Dumbass,
He's a good rider, but what's with the man-crush on
guys in CSC jerseys?
Ben
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Date: 11 Jul 2007 07:07:12
From: bjw@mambo.ucolick.org
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
On Jul 7, 8:13 pm, "amit.gh...@gmail.com" <amit.gh...@gmail.com >
wrote:
> On Jul 7, 6:22 pm, Kurgan Gringioni <kgringi...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> > Turn the graph on its side and it's half of the classic bell-shaped
> > curve.
>
> dumbass,
>
> your "observation" is non-sensical. you aren't looking at a probabilty
> distribution. if you binned the riders' times and plotted you would
> have a bell-shaped curve centered at about 48 kph
>
> what's notable are the gaps from 1st-2nd and 2nd-3rd. in a competitive
> TT the chung chart should look sort-of logarithmic, plateauing at the
> fastest riders. without the "flip up" at the top.
Dumbasses,
I agree with Greg. Cancellara's time is less suspicious than
your ideas of what the distribution "should" look like. Let's
say it is (as Dan pointed out) mostly non-prologue specialists
with a few specialists thrown in. One might expect the
non-specialists to have sort of random ability. Even if you
think it's a normal distribution, though, normal in what
variable? Time? Speed? Power? Something that's
normal in one will be skewed in the others. Plus the
specialists are going to skew the distribution, creating
a tail to high speeds.
(BTW, Amit, I think that whenever we talk about what a
distribution "should" look like, we're talking about probability
distributions.)
Gaps in overall sport performance are usually small because
there is so much competitive pressure from a large pool of
athletes - so records are usually broken by small increments
(except by Bob Beamon). However, when you take a limited
pool, like the relatively small number of prologue specialists,
you're sampling sparsely from the tail of a distribution.
When you do this there can be large gaps.
As an example, look at the populations of the largest cities.
The gaps between the first few are often larger than the gaps
among the 20-something largest. The distrib. of number of
cities with population N is more like a power law
than a gaussian. Of course, cities are not competing in
the same sense as athletes, but just because records tend
to go to an asymptote over time, doesn't mean performances
on a given day should asymptote to the fastest on that day.
Although large gaps at the podium of a TT (can we call this
the Chung Effect?) have sometimes pointed out suspicious
performances (Heras? Ty-Ty?), I can't get worked up over
Cancellara beating the pants off everyone in a prologue.
It's his specialty. Well, apparently beating Zabel in the
flying 200m is also his specialty, after today.
- Ben
Show me a data set that's normally distributed and I'll
show you data where someone fudged the outliers away.
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Date: 11 Jul 2007 22:58:24
From: Michael Press
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
In article
<1184137632.969851.159700@j4g2000prf.googlegroups.com >,
"bjw@mambo.ucolick.org" <bjw@mambo.ucolick.org >
wrote:
> Show me a data set that's normally distributed and I'll
> show you data where someone fudged the outliers away.
Calling a distribution normal is to throw in the towel.
If you cannot say more than, "it is normally
distributes", is as good as shrugging your shoulders
and saying "I dunno." Suppose you have a distribution
and you know or asssume that it has a finite mean and
variance, and _nothing_ else. Then it is a theorem that
your best chance at being close to right is to assume
that it is normally distributed. People should strive
to show how their data is not normal. In that way they
are extracting information. Once you get to the point
that the noise is normally distributed, you have
extracted all the information.
--
Michael Press
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Date: 11 Jul 2007 04:23:36
From:
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
On Jul 11, 4:10 am, RonSonic <ronso...@tampabay.rr.com > wrote:
> Is he a serious Lanterne Rouge candidate making an early statement?
Maybe, maybe not. Lobato was the 2nd guy off the start and a stalking
horse for the rest of the Saunier Duval team. His splits were paced at
constant speed.
CSC started Zabriskie quite early so they could use the info for
Cancellara.
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Date: 09 Jul 2007 01:05:05
From: Cyrus De Kline
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
On Jul 8, 12:22 am, Simon Brooke <s...@jasmine.org.uk > wrote:
> in message <1183836846.591787.62...@57g2000hsv.googlegroups.com>,
>
> rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com (' rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com') wrote:
> >http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png
>
> What interests me is that none of the commentators rate him as even an
> outside bet for GC - the ITV4 team were describing him as a 'prologue
> specialist'. Excuse me? For what is Paris-Roubaix the prologue?
>
> Excellent time triallist, seems to do well in classics (PR, Ghent -
> Wevelgem); won GC in the Tour of Denmark last year, and second on GC in
> the Tour of Luxembourd the year before, but they're all flat and the
> opposition wasn't first class.
>
> However, he's got a lot of decent places in non-CLM stages in grand tours:
>
> 2007
> 4eme de la 6eme etape du Tour of California (Solvang CLM Ind)
> 3eme de la 2eme etape du Tour de Suisse (Olten - Luzern)
> 12eme de la 3eme etape du Tour de Suisse (Brunnen - Nauders (A))
> 2006
>
> 2005
> 7eme de la 1ere etape du Tour de France (Fromentine - =CEle de Noirmout=
ier
> CLM Ind)
> 6eme de la 7eme etape du Tour de France (Lun=E9ville - Karlsruhe)
> 3eme de la 21eme etape du Tour de France (Corbeil-Essonnes - Paris
> Champs-=C9lys=E9es)
> 6eme de la 5eme etape du Tour d'Allemagne (S=F6lden - Friedrichshafen)
> 3eme de la 9eme etape du Tour d'Allemagne (Bad Kreuznach - Bonn)
>
> I know it's a joke that a Dane riding for a Dutch team gets to be King of
> the Mountains with monotonous regularity, so there's no reason in
> principle why there can't be a Swiss rider who's hopeless in the
> mountains. In the 2005 mountain stages, his results were as follows:
>
> 9 145 at 19.06
> 10 139 at 38.11
> 11 120 at 39.46
> 12 151 at 11.13
> 14 120 at 35.50
> 15 101 at 37.57
> 16 92 at 20.16
> (finished 128th on GC, took the white jersey)
>
> ... which is crap. He basically came home in the bus every day. In 2006 he
> wasn't on the start list for the Tour, but he rode the Vuelta. Mountain
> stages:
>
> 5 137 at 27.59
> 7 136 at 20.49
> 9 129 at 29.45
> (abandoned after stage 15 to prepare for ITT world champs)
>
> ... again, no sign of climbing ability. However, stage 3 of this years To=
ur
> de Suisse was this one:http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2007/jun07/suisse0=
7/?id=3Dstages/suisse073
> which is not the least bit flat, and he finished 12th, just 7 seconds
> behind the stage winner. He gave credit for his performance to the team:
>
> "It is clear that the goal was to defend the jersey. The work my team did
> today was extraordinary," he said with a smile. "Carlos and Frank are
> capable of fighting for the general classification but when we have the
> jersey on our shoulders, we are responsible for the chase."
>
> So: he's the best time triallist in the world, he's won the white jersey,
> he's shown he has the stamina to finish a grand tour; and he's shown he
> can climb.
>
> Fabian Cancellara is going to be a GC contender - if not this year, then
> soon.
>
> --
> s...@jasmine.org.uk (Simon Brooke)http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/
> ;; We don't just borrow words; on occasion, English has pursued other
> ;; languages down alleyways to beat them unconscious and riffle their
> ;; pockets for new vocabulary -- James D. Nicoll
Cancellara is what they used to call a "rouleur". And probably the
best of them nowadays.
Tall, heavy (for a pro cyclist), and a huge absolute power output.
The guy can even sprint amongst the best.
Remember, it was during the EPO years when guys like him suddenly
became GC contenders.
And everyone wanted to be the next Indurain.
Olano, Z=FClle, Honchar, Botero, Ullrich, Rogers come to mind. Surprise,
these were all Worlds TT champs...
But I think its more reassuring to see that climbers do well in the
mountains again and rouleurs do well on the flat terrain again, than
suddenly seeing all of them develop spectacular abilities where they
should be at a disadvantage.
Just ask Mr 60% how to transform a rouleur into a climber.
Seriously, though. Cancellara is surely a talented guy.
And you are not the first to come up with him a as GT GC contender.
He was quoted saying that "he always dreamed of winning the TdF,
but to do that he would have to lose muscle mass to be able to climb.
And he didn't want to do that right now because he would lose the
benefits that he has now."
He enjoys winning TTs, you know.
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Date: 09 Jul 2007 15:35:42
From: Simon Brooke
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
in message <1183968305.784964.299560@r34g2000hsd.googlegroups.com >, Cyrus
De Kline ('cyrusdekline@yahoo.fr') wrote:
> On Jul 8, 12:22 am, Simon Brooke <s...@jasmine.org.uk> wrote:
>> in message <1183836846.591787.62...@57g2000hsv.googlegroups.com>,
>>
>> rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com (' rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com') wrote:
>> >http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png
>>
>> What interests me is that none of the commentators rate him as even an
>> outside bet for GC - the ITV4 team were describing him as a 'prologue
>> specialist'. Excuse me? For what is Paris-Roubaix the prologue?
>>
>> Excellent time triallist, seems to do well in classics (PR, Ghent -
>> Wevelgem); won GC in the Tour of Denmark last year, and second on GC in
>> the Tour of Luxembourd the year before, but they're all flat and the
>> opposition wasn't first class.
>>
>> However, he's got a lot of decent places in non-CLM stages in grand
>> tours:
>>
>> 2007
>> 4eme de la 6eme etape du Tour of California (Solvang CLM Ind)
>> 3eme de la 2eme etape du Tour de Suisse (Olten - Luzern)
>> 12eme de la 3eme etape du Tour de Suisse (Brunnen - Nauders (A))
>> 2006
>>
>> 2005
>> 7eme de la 1ere etape du Tour de France (Fromentine - Île de
>> Noirmoutier
>> CLM Ind)
>> 6eme de la 7eme etape du Tour de France (Lunéville - Karlsruhe)
>> 3eme de la 21eme etape du Tour de France (Corbeil-Essonnes - Paris
>> Champs-Élysées)
>> 6eme de la 5eme etape du Tour d'Allemagne (Sölden - Friedrichshafen)
>> 3eme de la 9eme etape du Tour d'Allemagne (Bad Kreuznach - Bonn)
>>
>> I know it's a joke that a Dane riding for a Dutch team gets to be King
>> of the Mountains with monotonous regularity, so there's no reason in
>> principle why there can't be a Swiss rider who's hopeless in the
>> mountains. In the 2005 mountain stages, his results were as follows:
>>
>> 9 145 at 19.06
>> 10 139 at 38.11
>> 11 120 at 39.46
>> 12 151 at 11.13
>> 14 120 at 35.50
>> 15 101 at 37.57
>> 16 92 at 20.16
>> (finished 128th on GC, took the white jersey)
>>
>> ... which is crap. He basically came home in the bus every day. In 2006
>> he wasn't on the start list for the Tour, but he rode the Vuelta.
>> Mountain stages:
>>
>> 5 137 at 27.59
>> 7 136 at 20.49
>> 9 129 at 29.45
>> (abandoned after stage 15 to prepare for ITT world champs)
>>
>> ... again, no sign of climbing ability. However, stage 3 of this years
>> Tour de Suisse was this
>>
one:http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2007/jun07/suisse07/?id=stages/suisse073
>> which is not the least bit flat, and he finished 12th, just 7 seconds
>> behind the stage winner. He gave credit for his performance to the team:
>>
>> "It is clear that the goal was to defend the jersey. The work my team
>> did
>> today was extraordinary," he said with a smile. "Carlos and Frank are
>> capable of fighting for the general classification but when we have
>> the jersey on our shoulders, we are responsible for the chase."
>>
>> So: he's the best time triallist in the world, he's won the white
>> jersey, he's shown he has the stamina to finish a grand tour; and he's
>> shown he can climb.
>>
>> Fabian Cancellara is going to be a GC contender - if not this year, then
>> soon.
>>
>> --
>> s...@jasmine.org.uk (Simon Brooke)http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/
>> ;; We don't just borrow words; on occasion, English has pursued other
>> ;; languages down alleyways to beat them unconscious and riffle their
>> ;; pockets for new vocabulary -- James D. Nicoll
>
>
> Cancellara is what they used to call a "rouleur". And probably the
> best of them nowadays.
> Tall, heavy (for a pro cyclist), and a huge absolute power output.
> The guy can even sprint amongst the best.
>
> Remember, it was during the EPO years when guys like him suddenly
> became GC contenders.
> And everyone wanted to be the next Indurain.
> Olano, Zülle, Honchar, Botero, Ullrich, Rogers come to mind. Surprise,
> these were all Worlds TT champs...
>
> But I think its more reassuring to see that climbers do well in the
> mountains again and rouleurs do well on the flat terrain again, than
> suddenly seeing all of them develop spectacular abilities where they
> should be at a disadvantage.
> Just ask Mr 60% how to transform a rouleur into a climber.
>
> Seriously, though. Cancellara is surely a talented guy.
> And you are not the first to come up with him a as GT GC contender.
> He was quoted saying that "he always dreamed of winning the TdF,
> but to do that he would have to lose muscle mass to be able to climb.
> And he didn't want to do that right now because he would lose the
> benefits that he has now."
> He enjoys winning TTs, you know.
Yup. But you don't need upper body strength to win TTs. And what we saw in
London was that Cancellara was down on his tribars on corners where Kloden
was sitting up, and that Cancellara took a tighter line on the corners
than any of the other major contenders. Compare these three pictures,
taken on the same corner by the same photographer:
http://www.lkjh.biz/tdf/f5479.jpg
http://www.lkjh.biz/tdf/f5439.jpg
http://www.lkjh.biz/tdf/f5463.jpg
Those three tell you all you need to know about how Cancellara took 13
seconds out of Kloden and 23 out of Wiggie. It's not strength, it's skill
and daring. The same qualities make for a great descender. If Cancellara
can get enough upper-body weight off to become an adequate climber, he's a
GC contender. He doesn't need to become a super climber.
--
simon@jasmine.org.uk (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/
;; So, before proceeding with definitive screwing, choose the
;; position most congenital.
-- instructions for fitting bicycle handlebars
|
| | | |
Date: 10 Jul 2007 04:15:20
From: Ryan Cousineau
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
In article <vmt9m4-gk8.ln1@gododdin.internal.jasmine.org.uk >,
Simon Brooke <simon@jasmine.org.uk > wrote:
> in message <1183968305.784964.299560@r34g2000hsd.googlegroups.com>, Cyrus
> De Kline ('cyrusdekline@yahoo.fr') wrote:
>
> > On Jul 8, 12:22 am, Simon Brooke <s...@jasmine.org.uk> wrote:
> >> in message <1183836846.591787.62...@57g2000hsv.googlegroups.com>,
> >>
> >> rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com (' rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com') wrote:
> >> >http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png
> Yup. But you don't need upper body strength to win TTs. And what we saw in
> London was that Cancellara was down on his tribars on corners where Kloden
> was sitting up, and that Cancellara took a tighter line on the corners
> than any of the other major contenders. Compare these three pictures,
> taken on the same corner by the same photographer:
>
> http://www.lkjh.biz/tdf/f5479.jpg
> http://www.lkjh.biz/tdf/f5439.jpg
> http://www.lkjh.biz/tdf/f5463.jpg
>
> Those three tell you all you need to know about how Cancellara took 13
> seconds out of Kloden and 23 out of Wiggie. It's not strength, it's skill
> and daring. The same qualities make for a great descender. If Cancellara
> can get enough upper-body weight off to become an adequate climber, he's a
> GC contender. He doesn't need to become a super climber.
Nice photos. Going around that corner on the tri bars displays stones of
steel.
--
Ryan Cousineau rcousine@sfu.ca http://www.wiredcola.com/
"I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics
to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos
|
| |
Date: 08 Jul 2007 11:58:05
From: SLAVE of THE STATE
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
On Jul 7, 8:13 pm, "amit.gh...@gmail.com" <amit.gh...@gmail.com >
wrote:
> On Jul 7, 6:22 pm, Kurgan Gringioni <kgringi...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
>
>
>
>
> > On Jul 7, 2:13 pm, Michael Press <rub...@pacbell.net> wrote:
>
> > > In article
> > > <1183836907.648446.97...@r34g2000hsd.googlegroups.com>,
>
> > > rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > > On Jul 7, 9:34 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > > >http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png
>
> > > > Oops.
>
> > > >http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png
>
> > > How fast? Suspiciously fast.
> > Turn the graph on its side and it's half of the classic bell-shaped
> > curve.
> your "observation" is non-sensical. you aren't looking at a probabilty
> distribution. if you binned the riders' times and plotted you would
> have a bell-shaped curve centered at about 48 kph
hey-zeus eightch crisco
> what's notable are the gaps from 1st-2nd and 2nd-3rd. in a competitive
> TT the chung chart should look ...
"Should?"
"I demonstrated that if you stand in one place long enough, you'll get
hit by lightening." --BF, 1759
> ... sort-of logarithmic, plateauing at the
> fastest riders. without the "flip up" at the top.
|
| |
Date: 08 Jul 2007 04:43:24
From:
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
On Jul 7, 11:13 pm, Michael Press <rub...@pacbell.net > wrote:
> How fast? Suspiciously fast.
How can you say that? Everyone signed the ProTour pledge so now, of
course, the peloton must be clean. To suggest otherwise would be
saying that the UCI, the WADA, and the ASO are simply promoting
insincere window dressing.
|
| |
Date: 07 Jul 2007 20:13:49
From: amit.ghosh@gmail.com
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
On Jul 7, 6:22 pm, Kurgan Gringioni <kgringi...@hotmail.com > wrote:
> On Jul 7, 2:13 pm, Michael Press <rub...@pacbell.net> wrote:
>
> > In article
> > <1183836907.648446.97...@r34g2000hsd.googlegroups.com>,
>
> > rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > On Jul 7, 9:34 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > >http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png
>
> > > Oops.
>
> > >http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png
>
> > How fast? Suspiciously fast.
>
> > --
> > Michael Press
>
> Dumbasses -
>
> Turn the graph on its side and it's half of the classic bell-shaped
> curve.
>
> thanks,
>
> K. Gringioni.
dumbass,
your "observation" is non-sensical. you aren't looking at a probabilty
distribution. if you binned the riders' times and plotted you would
have a bell-shaped curve centered at about 48 kph
what's notable are the gaps from 1st-2nd and 2nd-3rd. in a competitive
TT the chung chart should look sort-of logarithmic, plateauing at the
fastest riders. without the "flip up" at the top.
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| | |
Date: 07 Jul 2007 23:25:01
From: Fred Fredburger
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
amit.ghosh@gmail.com wrote:
> On Jul 7, 6:22 pm, Kurgan Gringioni <kgringi...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>> On Jul 7, 2:13 pm, Michael Press <rub...@pacbell.net> wrote:
>>
>>> In article
>>> <1183836907.648446.97...@r34g2000hsd.googlegroups.com>,
>>> rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
>>>> On Jul 7, 9:34 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
>>>>> http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png
>>>> Oops.
>>>> http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png
>>> How fast? Suspiciously fast.
>>> --
>>> Michael Press
>> Dumbasses -
>>
>> Turn the graph on its side and it's half of the classic bell-shaped
>> curve.
>>
>> thanks,
>>
>> K. Gringioni.
>
> dumbass,
>
> your "observation" is non-sensical. you aren't looking at a probabilty
> distribution. if you binned the riders' times and plotted you would
> have a bell-shaped curve centered at about 48 kph
>
> what's notable are the gaps from 1st-2nd and 2nd-3rd. in a competitive
> TT the chung chart should look sort-of logarithmic, plateauing at the
> fastest riders. without the "flip up" at the top.
Log arithmetic WITH the flip up, if you please! When we used "Lincoln
Logs" in our 3rd grade math class you would not BELIEVE the fun we had
making miniscule catapults and flipping "Lincoln Logs" all over the
place! It was COOL!
By the way, doesn't today's Chung chart resemble Steve Carell's nose
just a bit?
Fred Fredburger
RBR Math Advisor
|
| | | |
Date: 08 Jul 2007 09:55:00
From: Kyle Legate
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
Fred Fredburger wrote:
>
> Log arithmetic WITH the flip up, if you please! When we used "Lincoln
> Logs" in our 3rd grade math class you would not BELIEVE the fun we had
> making miniscule catapults and flipping "Lincoln Logs" all over the
> place! It was COOL!
>
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=lincoln+log
|
| | | | |
Date: 08 Jul 2007 01:02:29
From: Fred Fredburger
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
Kyle Legate wrote:
> Fred Fredburger wrote:
>>
>> Log arithmetic WITH the flip up, if you please! When we used "Lincoln
>> Logs" in our 3rd grade math class you would not BELIEVE the fun we had
>> making miniscule catapults and flipping "Lincoln Logs" all over the
>> place! It was COOL!
>>
> http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=lincoln+log
I wasn't aware of that but it's appropriate, given the Steve Carell
reference.
|
| |
Date: 07 Jul 2007 17:03:21
From: Kurgan Gringioni
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
On Jul 7, 3:22 pm, Simon Brooke <s...@jasmine.org.uk > wrote:
>
> Fabian Cancellara is going to be a GC contender - if not this year, then
> soon.
Dumbass -
TT-ing is ability to make a high ratio of continuous power vs. frontal
area.
Climbing is a related, but different ability. It's continuous power
vs. mass.
There are many examples of world class TTers who were not able to keep
up with the world class climbers in the big mountain stages of the
Grand Tours.
There are also many examples of world class climbers who can't keep up
with world class TTers.
Which is not to say Cancellara won't be able to do both. I doubt it
though. He hasn't shown anything in the mountains.
thanks,
K. Gringioni.
|
| |
Date: 07 Jul 2007 23:22:08
From: Simon Brooke
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
in message <1183836846.591787.62190@57g2000hsv.googlegroups.com >,
rechungREMOVETHIS@gmail.com (' rechungREMOVETHIS@gmail.com') wrote:
> http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png
What interests me is that none of the commentators rate him as even an
outside bet for GC - the ITV4 team were describing him as a 'prologue
specialist'. Excuse me? For what is Paris-Roubaix the prologue?
Excellent time triallist, seems to do well in classics (PR, Ghent -
Wevelgem); won GC in the Tour of Denmark last year, and second on GC in
the Tour of Luxembourd the year before, but they're all flat and the
opposition wasn't first class.
However, he's got a lot of decent places in non-CLM stages in grand tours:
2007
4eme de la 6eme etape du Tour of California (Solvang CLM Ind)
3eme de la 2eme etape du Tour de Suisse (Olten - Luzern)
12eme de la 3eme etape du Tour de Suisse (Brunnen - Nauders (A))
2006
2005
7eme de la 1ere etape du Tour de France (Fromentine - Île de Noirmoutier
CLM Ind)
6eme de la 7eme etape du Tour de France (Lunéville - Karlsruhe)
3eme de la 21eme etape du Tour de France (Corbeil-Essonnes - Paris
Champs-Élysées)
6eme de la 5eme etape du Tour d'Allemagne (Sölden – Friedrichshafen)
3eme de la 9eme etape du Tour d'Allemagne (Bad Kreuznach – Bonn)
I know it's a joke that a Dane riding for a Dutch team gets to be King of
the Mountains with monotonous regularity, so there's no reason in
principle why there can't be a Swiss rider who's hopeless in the
mountains. In the 2005 mountain stages, his results were as follows:
9 145 at 19.06
10 139 at 38.11
11 120 at 39.46
12 151 at 11.13
14 120 at 35.50
15 101 at 37.57
16 92 at 20.16
(finished 128th on GC, took the white jersey)
... which is crap. He basically came home in the bus every day. In 2006 he
wasn't on the start list for the Tour, but he rode the Vuelta. Mountain
stages:
5 137 at 27.59
7 136 at 20.49
9 129 at 29.45
(abandoned after stage 15 to prepare for ITT world champs)
... again, no sign of climbing ability. However, stage 3 of this years Tour
de Suisse was this one:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2007/jun07/suisse07/?id=stages/suisse073
which is not the least bit flat, and he finished 12th, just 7 seconds
behind the stage winner. He gave credit for his performance to the team:
"It is clear that the goal was to defend the jersey. The work my team did
today was extraordinary," he said with a smile. "Carlos and Frank are
capable of fighting for the general classification but when we have the
jersey on our shoulders, we are responsible for the chase."
So: he's the best time triallist in the world, he's won the white jersey,
he's shown he has the stamina to finish a grand tour; and he's shown he
can climb.
Fabian Cancellara is going to be a GC contender - if not this year, then
soon.
--
simon@jasmine.org.uk (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/
;; We don't just borrow words; on occasion, English has pursued other
;; languages down alleyways to beat them unconscious and riffle their
;; pockets for new vocabulary -- James D. Nicoll
|
| | |
Date: 08 Jul 2007 01:22:31
From: Keith
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
On Sat, 07 Jul 2007 23:22:08 +0100, Simon Brooke
<simon@jasmine.org.uk > wrote:
>in message <1183836846.591787.62190@57g2000hsv.googlegroups.com>,
>rechungREMOVETHIS@gmail.com (' rechungREMOVETHIS@gmail.com') wrote:
>
>> http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png
>
>What interests me is that none of the commentators rate him as even an
>outside bet for GC - the ITV4 team were describing him as a 'prologue
>specialist'. Excuse me? For what is Paris-Roubaix the prologue?
>
>So: he's the best time triallist in the world, he's won the white jersey,
>he's shown he has the stamina to finish a grand tour; and he's shown he
>can climb.
>
>Fabian Cancellara is going to be a GC contender - if not this year, then
>soon.
Great guy, but that was not much of a mountain stage in the TDS when
he finished 7" down, a rolling climb at the end of the stage and he
was actually dropped and caught up by going flat out.
Commentators seem to think he is too heavy to climb, we shall see...
|
| |
Date: 07 Jul 2007 16:03:19
From:
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
On Jul 7, 12:35 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Jul 7, 9:34 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> >http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png
>
> Oops.
>
> http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png
Needs to show the Millar line.
|
| |
Date: 07 Jul 2007 15:22:30
From: Kurgan Gringioni
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
On Jul 7, 2:13 pm, Michael Press <rub...@pacbell.net > wrote:
> In article
> <1183836907.648446.97...@r34g2000hsd.googlegroups.com>,
>
> rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> > On Jul 7, 9:34 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> > >http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png
>
> > Oops.
>
> >http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png
>
> How fast? Suspiciously fast.
>
> --
> Michael Press
Dumbasses -
Turn the graph on its side and it's half of the classic bell-shaped
curve.
thanks,
K. Gringioni.
|
| | |
Date: 08 Jul 2007 03:04:49
From: Tom Kunich
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
"Kurgan Gringioni" <kgringioni@hotmail.com > wrote in message
news:1183846950.924334.19980@d30g2000prg.googlegroups.com...
>
> Turn the graph on its side and it's half of the classic bell-shaped
> curve.
Not to point out the obvious but there shouldn't be those sort of shapes in
a sport that has the best of the best.
|
| | | |
Date: 08 Jul 2007 04:30:34
From: Dan Connelly
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
Tom Kunich wrote:
> "Kurgan Gringioni" <kgringioni@hotmail.com> wrote in message
> news:1183846950.924334.19980@d30g2000prg.googlegroups.com...
>> Turn the graph on its side and it's half of the classic bell-shaped
>> curve.
>
> Not to point out the obvious but there shouldn't be those sort of shapes in
> a sport that has the best of the best.
>
Except this isn't a group of riders selected for prologue ability, so a normal distribution makes sense.
Dan
|
| | |
Date: 08 Jul 2007 00:44:35
From: Michael Press
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
In article
<1183846950.924334.19980@d30g2000prg.googlegroups.com >,
Kurgan Gringioni <kgringioni@hotmail.com > wrote:
> On Jul 7, 2:13 pm, Michael Press <rub...@pacbell.net> wrote:
> > In article
> > <1183836907.648446.97...@r34g2000hsd.googlegroups.com>,
> >
> > rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > On Jul 7, 9:34 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > >http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png
> >
> > > Oops.
> >
> > >http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png
> >
> > How fast? Suspiciously fast.
>
> Dumbasses -
>
> Turn the graph on its side and it's half of the classic bell-shaped
> curve.
More like the integral of a unimodal distribution function.
--
Michael Press
|
| |
Date: 07 Jul 2007 14:06:36
From: joseph.santaniello@gmail.com
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
On Jul 7, 9:35 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Jul 7, 9:34 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> >http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png
>
> Oops.
>
> http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png
O'Grady didn't do too bad either. I take it that's him in the bottom
right.
Joseph
|
| | |
Date: 07 Jul 2007 15:49:13
From: Howard Kveck
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
In article <1183842396.178207.215300@57g2000hsv.googlegroups.com >,
"joseph.santaniello@gmail.com" <joseph.santaniello@gmail.com > wrote:
> On Jul 7, 9:35 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> > On Jul 7, 9:34 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> >
> > >http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png
> >
> > Oops.
> >
> > http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png
>
> O'Grady didn't do too bad either. I take it that's him in the bottom
> right.
No, that was Ruben Lobato Elvira. Who looks to be as far off everyone else as
Cancellara, only in the opposite direction.
--
tanx,
Howard
Never take a tenant with a monkey.
remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?
|
| | | |
Date: 10 Jul 2007 22:10:13
From: RonSonic
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
On Sat, 07 Jul 2007 15:49:13 -0700, Howard Kveck <YOURhoward@h-SHOESbomb.com >
wrote:
>In article <1183842396.178207.215300@57g2000hsv.googlegroups.com>,
> "joseph.santaniello@gmail.com" <joseph.santaniello@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> On Jul 7, 9:35 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
>> > On Jul 7, 9:34 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
>> >
>> > >http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png
>> >
>> > Oops.
>> >
>> > http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png
>>
>> O'Grady didn't do too bad either. I take it that's him in the bottom
>> right.
>
> No, that was Ruben Lobato Elvira. Who looks to be as far off everyone else as
>Cancellara, only in the opposite direction.
Is he a serious Lanterne Rouge candidate making an early statement?
Ron
|
| | | | |
Date: 10 Jul 2007 19:24:46
From: Howard Kveck
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
In article <vue893l38edef9m2bioc02m4qr0r178gvp@4ax.com >,
RonSonic <ronsonic@tampabay.rr.com > wrote:
> On Sat, 07 Jul 2007 15:49:13 -0700, Howard Kveck <YOURhoward@h-SHOESbomb.com>
> wrote:
> > No, that was Ruben Lobato Elvira. Who looks to be as far off everyone
> > else as Cancellara, only in the opposite direction.
>
> Is he a serious Lanterne Rouge candidate making an early statement?
If the guy is going to make an effort to push the time limit in a prologue, then
I'd say he probably is a contenda for the LR. (How slow would you have to go to get
the boot in an eight minute race? Dan?)
--
tanx,
Howard
Never take a tenant with a monkey.
remove YOUR SHOES to reply, ok?
|
| |
Date: 07 Jul 2007 12:35:07
From:
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
On Jul 7, 9:34 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png
Oops.
http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png
|
| | |
Date: 07 Jul 2007 23:15:06
From: Ewoud Dronkert
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
rechungREMOVETHIS@gmail.com wrote:
> http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png
You know, the Flemish commentators actually called him
"extraterrestrial"...
--
E. Dronkert
|
| | | |
Date: 08 Jul 2007 18:31:32
From: alex beascoechea
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
But what about Kloden, he must qualify at least for extratrospherical.
2 years ago he said there was one thing that was clear to him after that
TdF: he would never, ever again be team colleague with Vino. That must have
been until Vino offer him to share his toys (or at least to let him play).
"Ewoud Dronkert" <firstname@lastname.net.invalid > wrote in message
news:kg0093d2gpr3usif77k5ehe385r0ai18mi@4ax.com...
> rechungREMOVETHIS@gmail.com wrote:
>> http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png
>
> You know, the Flemish commentators actually called him
> "extraterrestrial"...
>
> --
> E. Dronkert
|
| | |
Date: 07 Jul 2007 14:13:24
From: Michael Press
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
In article
<1183836907.648446.97160@r34g2000hsd.googlegroups.com >,
rechungREMOVETHIS@gmail.com wrote:
> On Jul 7, 9:34 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> > http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png
>
> Oops.
>
> http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png
How fast? Suspiciously fast.
--
Michael Press
|
| | | |
Date: 07 Jul 2007 23:36:45
From: Ryan Cousineau
Subject: Re: How fast was Cancellara?
|
In article <rubrum-CC7FD1.14132407072007@newsclstr03.news.prodigy.net >,
Michael Press <rubrum@pacbell.net > wrote:
> In article
> <1183836907.648446.97160@r34g2000hsd.googlegroups.com>,
> rechungREMOVETHIS@gmail.com wrote:
>
> > On Jul 7, 9:34 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf-prologue.png
> >
> > Oops.
> >
> > http://anonymous.coward.free.fr/rbr/tdf07-prologue.png
>
> How fast? Suspiciously fast.
Heh. Very much so.
Millar Line:
13 David Millar (GBr) Saunier Duval - Prodir 0.33
33 seconds down, and he's a TT specialist for whom this stage was a
goal? He really must be clean.
Cancellara (and Klodi) just announced that they are here to play.
--
Ryan Cousineau rcousine@sfu.ca http://www.wiredcola.com/
"I don't want kids who are thinking about going into mathematics
to think that they have to take drugs to succeed." -Paul Erdos
|
|
