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Date: 19 Jul 2007 17:44:54
From: Paul Cassel
Subject: Newcomer question
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Somewhat new to bicycling and the racing.
I look at the standings posted by Bob Martin and from my viewing on
Versus. What sort of deficit is reasonable to make up at this point
based on historical efforts?
Frex, is Hincapie's almost .5 hour deficit something that has been
overcome by others in the past? At what point can we say that someone
with a deficit of X minutes is effectively out of the running for the
overall winner?
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Date: 20 Jul 2007 08:53:34
From: Simon Brooke
Subject: Re: Newcomer question
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in message <dLKdne_MuOPPagLbnZ2dnUVZ_obinZ2d@comcast.com >, Paul Cassel
('pcasselremove2@comremovecast.net') wrote:
> Somewhat new to bicycling and the racing.
>
> I look at the standings posted by Bob Martin and from my viewing on
> Versus. What sort of deficit is reasonable to make up at this point
> based on historical efforts?
>
> Frex, is Hincapie's almost .5 hour deficit something that has been
> overcome by others in the past? At what point can we say that someone
> with a deficit of X minutes is effectively out of the running for the
> overall winner?
Very occasionally, very strong riders have got away in long breaks. It is
possible for a rider to make up a half hour deficit, but it isn't very
likely, and in any case Hincapie isn't the quality of rider to do it.
Vino, however, still is a danger man, even injured and at eight minutes
back. In fact Vino is so tactically erratic that he's probably more
dangerous in his present position/condition than if he was tootling along
in yellow.
However, the other side to getting away in a long break is that if the
peloton sees you as a danger man you won't be allowed to go. Super
climbers can make a break succeed on a hard mountain stage even with the
peloton against them, because if you can get over a col with a reasonable
gap you can sometimes stay away on the descent (particularly if you have
three or four guys with you). Anyone else will only get into a successful
break, fundamentally, if they're permitted to.
--
simon@jasmine.org.uk (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/
Morning had broken. I found a rather battered tube of Araldite
resin in the bottom of the toolbag.
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Date: 21 Jul 2007 13:03:19
From: Mark
Subject: Re: Newcomer question
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Simon Brooke wrote:
> Vino, however, still is a danger man, even injured and at eight minutes
> back. In fact Vino is so tactically erratic that he's probably more
> dangerous in his present position/condition than if he was tootling along
> in yellow.
...and far more entertaining as well! He's even more motivated than
usual to attack.
Mark J.
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Date: 22 Jul 2007 04:48:33
From: Michael Press
Subject: Re: Newcomer question
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In article
<Lrydnf1VDYwa-z_bnZ2dnUVZ_oLinZ2d@comcast.com >,
Mark <remove.mandmlj.this@remove.comcast.this.net >
wrote:
> Simon Brooke wrote:
> > Vino, however, still is a danger man, even injured and at eight minutes
> > back. In fact Vino is so tactically erratic that he's probably more
> > dangerous in his present position/condition than if he was tootling along
> > in yellow.
>
> ...and far more entertaining as well! He's even more motivated than
> usual to attack.
Everybody-- How motivated is he?
--
Michael Press
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Date: 21 Jul 2007 21:26:57
From: Simon Brooke
Subject: Re: Newcomer question
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in message <Lrydnf1VDYwa-z_bnZ2dnUVZ_oLinZ2d@comcast.com >, Mark
('remove.mandmlj.this@remove.comcast.this.net') wrote:
> Simon Brooke wrote:
>> Vino, however, still is a danger man, even injured and at eight minutes
>> back. In fact Vino is so tactically erratic that he's probably more
>> dangerous in his present position/condition than if he was tootling
>> along in yellow.
>
> ...and far more entertaining as well! He's even more motivated than
> usual to attack.
Isn't he just? Expect a breakaway sometime in the next three days. Expect
him to appear to be riding /against/ Astana...
Tomorrow is going to be a great stage!
--
simon@jasmine.org.uk (Simon Brooke) http://www.jasmine.org.uk/~simon/
;; Diplomacy, American: see Intelligence, Military
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Date: 22 Jul 2007 09:59:27
From: Morten Reippuert Knudsen
Subject: Re: Newcomer question
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Simon Brooke <simon@jasmine.org.uk > wrote:
> in message <Lrydnf1VDYwa-z_bnZ2dnUVZ_oLinZ2d@comcast.com>, Mark
> ('remove.mandmlj.this@remove.comcast.this.net') wrote:
> > Simon Brooke wrote:
> >> Vino, however, still is a danger man, even injured and at eight minutes
> >> back. In fact Vino is so tactically erratic that he's probably more
> >> dangerous in his present position/condition than if he was tootling
> >> along in yellow.
> >
> > ...and far more entertaining as well! He's even more motivated than
> > usual to attack.
> Isn't he just? Expect a breakaway sometime in the next three days. Expect
> him to appear to be riding /against/ Astana...
If any Astana rider rides _against_ Vinokurov he will be pulled from the
team the following day, even Kloeden.
> Tomorrow is going to be a great stage!
for shure.
--
Morten Reippuert Knudsen :-) <http://blog.reippuert.dk >
Merlin Works CR-3/2.5 & Campagnolo Chorus 2007.
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Date: 19 Jul 2007 21:16:06
From: DirtRoadie
Subject: Re: Newcomer question
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On Jul 19, 5:44 pm, Paul Cassel <pcasselremo...@comremovecast.net >
wrote:
> Somewhat new to bicycling and the racing.
>
> I look at the standings posted by Bob Martin and from my viewing on
> Versus. What sort of deficit is reasonable to make up at this point
> based on historical efforts?
>
> Frex, is Hincapie's almost .5 hour deficit something that has been
> overcome by others in the past? At what point can we say that someone
> with a deficit of X minutes is effectively out of the running for the
> overall winner?
The actual time deficit is significant but is not the only factor.
There was a fellow named Pereiro who last year recovered just about .5
hour in a single stage (13) and ended up second (maybe even first)
overall, mostly because nobody was paying attention to him.
See http://www.cyclingnews.com/road/2006/tour06/?id=results/tour0613
So yes, it's possible, but not common.
DR
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Date: 20 Jul 2007 03:14:14
From: Tom Kunich
Subject: Re: Newcomer question
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"Paul Cassel" <pcasselremove2@comremovecast.net > wrote in message
news:dLKdne_MuOPPagLbnZ2dnUVZ_obinZ2d@comcast.com...
> Somewhat new to bicycling and the racing.
>
> I look at the standings posted by Bob Martin and from my viewing on
> Versus. What sort of deficit is reasonable to make up at this point based
> on historical efforts?
>
> Frex, is Hincapie's almost .5 hour deficit something that has been
> overcome by others in the past? At what point can we say that someone with
> a deficit of X minutes is effectively out of the running for the overall
> winner?
Against Valverde a couple of minutes is the most that God could make up
unless there's something major bad happening to him.
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Date: 19 Jul 2007 23:50:18
From: bob sullivan
Subject: Re: Newcomer question
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Tom Kunich wrote:
> "Paul Cassel" <pcasselremove2@comremovecast.net> wrote in message
> news:dLKdne_MuOPPagLbnZ2dnUVZ_obinZ2d@comcast.com...
>> Somewhat new to bicycling and the racing.
>>
>> I look at the standings posted by Bob Martin and from my viewing on
>> Versus. What sort of deficit is reasonable to make up at this point based
>> on historical efforts?
>>
>> Frex, is Hincapie's almost .5 hour deficit something that has been
>> overcome by others in the past? At what point can we say that someone with
>> a deficit of X minutes is effectively out of the running for the overall
>> winner?
>
> Against Valverde a couple of minutes is the most that God could make up
> unless there's something major bad happening to him.
Valverde has to prove that he can *finish* the Tour to win, which he
has yet to do. I hope he does, because it would be a shame to have
yet another year of pundits talking about his 'unfulfilled potential'.
~bob s.
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