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Main
Date: 20 Jun 2007 10:13:48
From: joseph.santaniello@gmail.com
Subject: Predictions please.
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Hi All,
This weekend is my big race of the year. I amuse several of my riding
buddies with often quite accurate predictions of their (and my) times
over various courses, and now the pressure is on to predict our time
for this race. Little do they know that all I do is punch in data into
various online calculators and make some educated WAGs to arrive at my
predictions. This time I need help with my prediction, so anyone
interested give me your prediction and your reasoning. Whoever is
closest wins a postcard (at the least!).
The race is Trondheim-Oslo in Norway. 540km with 4,400m of total
ascent. Profile here:
http://www.styrkeproven.no/upload/2006/loypeprofil/loypeprofil.pdf
The weather while perfect now is forecast (as usual) to be rain and
slight headwinds.
I have done the race 5 times with times from 24 hours down to 19. This
is the first time I will do the race as part of a team with organized
support cars, etc. The combination of the positive effect of support
logistics and riding with a team make any assesment based on my
previous performances not very useful. And I am WAY stonger now than
ever before. Our team is looking for sub 15 hours, and if the weather
cooperates that should be theoretically possible. Last time the team
(with about 10 of the current 29 members participating, the rest are
new guys myself included) managed 15:13. That same year a new record
was set by Rye of 13:28. This year we were 1 hour behind Rye in the
230km Mj=F8sa Rundt a few weeks ago.
Our problem is we may overdo it the first 200km up to the mountain. In
our group rides the tendency has been to ride too fast and then for
(almost) everyone to not admit it afterward that they thought it was
too fast. So I full expect several guys to be used up already after
the first 200km. I think eating enough will also be a problem for
many. Our team captain has told me speciffically that I have to let
him know how I'm doing up the hill because I am particularly important
for the downhill/flat section from km 200 to 350. I'm pretty sure
I'll be fine at least to km 450 where the road gets more hilly and I
will perhaps have run dry. If I have to let go, it will probably be
there.
So the team's weakness is sub-optimal discipline, and perhaps too
ambitious a goal. My weakness is I may have to go too hard in the
beginning up the hill to keep up, such that I go empty earlier than
desired.
How fast will the team manage? Will I hold on to the finish? If not,
where will I let go and what will my time be?
Joseph
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Date: 26 Jun 2007 02:15:27
From:
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
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On Jun 26, 10:14 am, Joseph wrote:
> On Jun 26, 10:06 am, Donald Munro <fat-dumb...@hotmail.com> wrote:
>
> > > his bike is about 2kg less,
>
> > Time for the fatty master solution. Do you really need another excuse ?
>
> I don't, but my wife isn't convinced...
A True Fatty Master would have a solution for this, too.
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Date: 26 Jun 2007 02:03:03
From:
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
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Joseph wrote:
> Since power is what I need, power is what I should be looking at.
Well, these things are power meters, not bolt-on motors. Though you
could probably use a bolt-on motor.
> A few times on the rollers I have done intervalls using speed as a
> proxy for power instead of HR. With HR it takes 30-45 seconds to get
> it up to my 170 target which I would then hold for the rest of the 8
> minutes. When I tried holding a constant speed instead of paying
> attention to HR, it took much longer to reach the 170, and it was much
> harder to maintain the speed for the whole 8 minutes. I tried with
> severla different speeds to find the right one. What was very
> interesting is the speed range in the HR based intervalls was very
> narrow (no need to switch gears and not even a perceptible change w/o
> looking) but it is apparently big enough to get dropped.
HR doesn't work well as a pacing device for shorter intervals
(actually, I'm not sure it works well as a pacing device for longer
intervals, either), or when the terrain or conditions are variable.
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Date: 26 Jun 2007 08:14:08
From: joseph.santaniello@gmail.com
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
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On Jun 26, 10:06 am, Donald Munro <fat-dumb...@hotmail.com > wrote:
> joseph.santanie...@gmail.com wrote:
> > his bike is about 2kg less,
>
> Time for the fatty master solution. Do you really need another excuse ?
I don't, but my wife isn't convinced...
Joseph
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Date: 26 Jun 2007 07:45:15
From: joseph.santaniello@gmail.com
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
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On Jun 26, 8:53 am, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Jun 26, 12:18 am, Joseph wrote:
>
>
>
> > > It's kind of surprising how narrow the window of sustainable power is,
> > > and how a couple of strong guys can shatter a group -- intentionally
> > > or unintentionally.
>
> > The effects of this narrow margin can also be seen with the difference
> > between me and the other big guy on the team. He is 94kg vs my 98, and
> > his bike is about 2kg less, but I am marginally stonger, in terms of
> > sustainable pace and ITT. He has a higher burstable power. We haven't
> > tried, but I think he would waste me in a sprint. He suffered, but had
> > more or less no problems sticking it out for the 16:36. There is hope!
>
> I don't think "burstable" or sprint power is the issue. You may think
> that the ability to go high and recover is what you lack, but I
> strongly suspect that the issue is functional threshold power. When I
> said "narrow window," that's not exactly correct: there's a wide
> margin on the lower side but a very narrow margin on the upper side,
> so a cliff is more like it. Being able to go high and recover is a
> good thing--but being able to sidestep recovery because you never go
> over the cliff is better. Earlier, in some other thread, you were
> talking about 5x8 minute intervals at some relatively high heart rate.
> All intervals are good but I suspect you need to raise your tempo
> power so you might consider slightly longer FTP-building intervals.
> The difference between getting dropped 130 km from Oslo and sticking
> on could be just a handful of watts in terms of threshold. Lose 5 kg
> and gain 10 watts.
I agree that FTP is the issue. I was just listing his strengths. I
think the cliff analogy is perfect. Your point that it's probably only
a handful of watts that I'm missing is more or less what I was trying
to say by having a look at this guy. He was able to stay on the edge
of the cliff, whilst I could not and the outcome of that difference
was dramatic.
As for doing long FTP intervalls, I keep coming back to training with
power. Since power is what I need, power is what I should be looking
at. A few times on the rollers I have done intervalls using speed as a
proxy for power instead of HR. With HR it takes 30-45 seconds to get
it up to my 170 target which I would then hold for the rest of the 8
minutes. When I tried holding a constant speed instead of paying
attention to HR, it took much longer to reach the 170, and it was much
harder to maintain the speed for the whole 8 minutes. I tried with
severla different speeds to find the right one. What was very
interesting is the speed range in the HR based intervalls was very
narrow (no need to switch gears and not even a perceptible change w/o
looking) but it is apparently big enough to get dropped.
Joseph
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Date: 25 Jun 2007 23:53:15
From:
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
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On Jun 26, 12:18 am, Joseph wrote:
>
> > It's kind of surprising how narrow the window of sustainable power is,
> > and how a couple of strong guys can shatter a group -- intentionally
> > or unintentionally.
>
> The effects of this narrow margin can also be seen with the difference
> between me and the other big guy on the team. He is 94kg vs my 98, and
> his bike is about 2kg less, but I am marginally stonger, in terms of
> sustainable pace and ITT. He has a higher burstable power. We haven't
> tried, but I think he would waste me in a sprint. He suffered, but had
> more or less no problems sticking it out for the 16:36. There is hope!
I don't think "burstable" or sprint power is the issue. You may think
that the ability to go high and recover is what you lack, but I
strongly suspect that the issue is functional threshold power. When I
said "narrow window," that's not exactly correct: there's a wide
margin on the lower side but a very narrow margin on the upper side,
so a cliff is more like it. Being able to go high and recover is a
good thing--but being able to sidestep recovery because you never go
over the cliff is better. Earlier, in some other thread, you were
talking about 5x8 minute intervals at some relatively high heart rate.
All intervals are good but I suspect you need to raise your tempo
power so you might consider slightly longer FTP-building intervals.
The difference between getting dropped 130 km from Oslo and sticking
on could be just a handful of watts in terms of threshold. Lose 5 kg
and gain 10 watts.
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Date: 25 Jun 2007 15:18:28
From: joseph.santaniello@gmail.com
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
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On Jun 25, 11:28 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Jun 25, 11:03 pm, "joseph.santanie...@gmail.com"
>
> <joseph.santanie...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > On Jun 22, 9:41 am, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > 15:43, and you'll get dropped.
>
> > We have a winner!
>
> I'm sorry I was right.
>
> > My pre-race concerns were justified. We went too hard up the
> > "mountain" and this took it's toll on the average speed for the next
> > leg that should have been very fast but wasn't. Because of the wide
> > fitness variation in the team, at times the strong guys got the pace
> > up so high, that everyone else dropped out of the rotation, and had to
> > go rest on the back.
>
> It's kind of surprising how narrow the window of sustainable power is,
> and how a couple of strong guys can shatter a group -- intentionally
> or unintentionally.
The effects of this narrow margin can also be seen with the difference
between me and the other big guy on the team. He is 94kg vs my 98, and
his bike is about 2kg less, but I am marginally stonger, in terms of
sustainable pace and ITT. He has a higher burstable power. We haven't
tried, but I think he would waste me in a sprint. He suffered, but had
more or less no problems sticking it out for the 16:36. There is hope!
Joseph
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Date: 26 Jun 2007 10:06:40
From: Donald Munro
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
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joseph.santaniello@gmail.com wrote:
> his bike is about 2kg less,
Time for the fatty master solution. Do you really need another excuse ?
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Date: 25 Jun 2007 21:28:51
From:
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
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On Jun 25, 11:03 pm, "joseph.santanie...@gmail.com"
<joseph.santanie...@gmail.com > wrote:
> On Jun 22, 9:41 am, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> > 15:43, and you'll get dropped.
>
> We have a winner!
I'm sorry I was right.
> My pre-race concerns were justified. We went too hard up the
> "mountain" and this took it's toll on the average speed for the next
> leg that should have been very fast but wasn't. Because of the wide
> fitness variation in the team, at times the strong guys got the pace
> up so high, that everyone else dropped out of the rotation, and had to
> go rest on the back.
It's kind of surprising how narrow the window of sustainable power is,
and how a couple of strong guys can shatter a group -- intentionally
or unintentionally.
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Date: 25 Jun 2007 14:03:10
From: joseph.santaniello@gmail.com
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
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On Jun 22, 9:41 am, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Jun 22, 9:08 am, Ewoud Dronkert <firstn...@lastname.net.invalid>
> wrote:
>
> > 15:42
> > You will hold on, in part due to the headwind.
>
> 15:43, and you'll get dropped.
We have a winner!
It was the worst weather conditions anyone I spoke with could
remember. Even a guy who has done the race 20 times. I didn't speak
with the guy who has done it 41 times though. I'm sure he's seen
worse. Anyway it was acknowledged that the weather added about 1 hour
to any halfway fast times. My team managed 16:36 and I got dropped
with 130km to go when we hit the rolling hills.
My pre-race concerns were justified. We went too hard up the
"mountain" and this took it's toll on the average speed for the next
leg that should have been very fast but wasn't. Because of the wide
fitness variation in the team, at times the strong guys got the pace
up so high, that everyone else dropped out of the rotation, and had to
go rest on the back. This just made everythign go slower, and we'd
have to restart the rotation again with everyone only for it to repeat
a few minutes later.
My pulse was up in the 180 range for most of the steep part of the
climb up to the high point at 170km and this wiped me out, but to show
the huge variation is effort levels, on the flat sections after the
climb from km 200 to 350 my pulse was all the way down in the 125
range. But when we hit the hilsl again, I couldn't keep up. After I
got dropped, I had to stop at one of the food stations to borrow a
blanket cuz our support car with the clothes stayed with the team and
I started to freeze. I fell asleep for about an hour in the red cross
tent! But I was at least warm, so I rode the rest of the way alone. I
ened up with a time of 18:51 including about 1.5 hours of stop. My
team managed 16:36 including 19 minutes of stop. Next year!
Joseph
PS: Anyone intersted in what I look like suffering at max hr up the
mountian pass at about 180km:
http://tinyurl.com/29uwfz
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Date: 25 Jun 2007 13:37:50
From: joseph.santaniello@gmail.com
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
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On Jun 22, 9:55 am, "b...@mambo.ucolick.org" <b...@mambo.ucolick.org >
wrote:
> On Jun 21, 1:24 pm, "joseph.santanie...@gmail.com"
>
> <joseph.santanie...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > Downhills equalize to a point and only if sucking wheel is acceptable.
> > That's why in our team when we get to the 2 real descents, I along
> > with another heavy (95kg*) guy get to pull us down. The others are
> > probably riding their brakes behind us, but as a group we are going as
> > fast as possible. When the road is on a slight descent and we are
> > doing our rotation at 50km/h or more I and a few of the other bigger
> > riders are just cruising, while I see the smaller riders seriously
> > struggling to even pull in front of their guy when they get to the
> > front of the rotation. When the road is flat and we are going 40km/h
> > they don't have any problems.
>
> In such a situation, the smaller riders could just hang
> onto the back and never go to the front of the rotation.
> Also, you're not really supposed to have to pull in front
> of your leader when you get to the front. The leader
> should pull over and ease up and naturally fall back,
> exposing the second rider to the wind. The second rider
> stays at constant speed (assuming the road grade is
> constant). If the second rider has difficulty keeping
> that speed, he just rotates off right away. This can
> be difficult to do, given ego, changes in road grade,
> and other things, but is needed to prevent burning
> people off too quickly.
>
> Ben
The way we do it everybody rotates off right away. Anyone who has
problems are the guys who feel like they hit a wall as soon as the guy
in front moves over. Indeed it is hard particularly when some people
ar ein a bit over their head. They have to jam on so much extra effort
to keep the speed up that they end up increasing the speed the whole
time until everyone is wated.
Joseph
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Date: 22 Jun 2007 00:55:03
From: bjw@mambo.ucolick.org
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
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On Jun 21, 1:24 pm, "joseph.santanie...@gmail.com"
<joseph.santanie...@gmail.com > wrote:
> Downhills equalize to a point and only if sucking wheel is acceptable.
> That's why in our team when we get to the 2 real descents, I along
> with another heavy (95kg*) guy get to pull us down. The others are
> probably riding their brakes behind us, but as a group we are going as
> fast as possible. When the road is on a slight descent and we are
> doing our rotation at 50km/h or more I and a few of the other bigger
> riders are just cruising, while I see the smaller riders seriously
> struggling to even pull in front of their guy when they get to the
> front of the rotation. When the road is flat and we are going 40km/h
> they don't have any problems.
In such a situation, the smaller riders could just hang
onto the back and never go to the front of the rotation.
Also, you're not really supposed to have to pull in front
of your leader when you get to the front. The leader
should pull over and ease up and naturally fall back,
exposing the second rider to the wind. The second rider
stays at constant speed (assuming the road grade is
constant). If the second rider has difficulty keeping
that speed, he just rotates off right away. This can
be difficult to do, given ego, changes in road grade,
and other things, but is needed to prevent burning
people off too quickly.
Ben
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Date: 22 Jun 2007 00:41:21
From:
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
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On Jun 22, 9:08 am, Ewoud Dronkert <firstn...@lastname.net.invalid >
wrote:
> 15:42
> You will hold on, in part due to the headwind.
15:43, and you'll get dropped.
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Date: 22 Jun 2007 09:08:20
From: Ewoud Dronkert
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
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15:42
You will hold on, in part due to the headwind.
--
E. Dronkert
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Date: 22 Jun 2007 11:02:06
From: RonSonic
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
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On Fri, 22 Jun 2007 09:08:20 +0200, Ewoud Dronkert
<firstname@lastname.net.invalid > wrote:
>15:42
>You will hold on, in part due to the headwind.
15:41 and you're the hero because the hills were also into the wind and you did
your diesel thing.
Ron
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Date: 22 Jun 2007 06:35:33
From: joseph.santaniello@gmail.com
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
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On Jun 22, 3:46 am, Michael Press <rub...@pacbell.net > wrote:
> In article
> <1182455686.364012.295...@u2g2000hsc.googlegroups.com>,
> "joseph.santanie...@gmail.com"
>
>
>
> <joseph.santanie...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > On Jun 21, 9:41 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > On Jun 21, 8:33 pm, joseph wrote:
>
> > > > Ideally at least 24 guys should be in the roatation at
> > > > any time, with that number decreasing as guys get used up.
>
> > > Yikes.
>
> > > For team TTs, the pacing strategy is pretty tricky. You have to go
> > > easier on hills (which you know) and with a tailwind (which you may
> > > not have), or else you'll shatter your team.
>
> > A constant rotation is very hard to regulate the speed of too. The
> > terrain is on for the most part well graded roads, so the yo-yo effect
> > is pretty small and we can get a good rhythm going.
>
> > Perhaps the biggest problem is the rather wide range of fitness and
> > experience of the riders. The age range is 21 to 62, and the weight
> > range is from 55 to 98kg. I don't know the flat 10km ITT times but I
> > guess it ranges from 13:00 to 17:00. Should be interesting. We have
> > scheduled 3 stops, but we also get bottle hand-offs on some of the
> > hills.
>
> > The captain has never been a captain before, but he has ridden the
> > race with 2 well established teams several times so he knows how it
> > should be done. He has also 2 very good co-captains who know how this
> > should be done too, so even though there are a bunch of new guys, it
> > has the potential to go smoothly.
>
> > Right now the weather looks like rain and headwinds, temps from 9C to
> > 15C. The headwind makes things go slower but for my own selfish needs
> > helps as it slows things up on the hills. Levels the playing field a
> > bit when the road tilts upward. I'm not too worried about getting
> > dropped on a hill, just in having to go too hard such that I burn up
> > too many calories that I won't be able to replenish and bonking
> > somewhere.
>
> Sounds like you do not trust your team. Are you having
> second thoughts? Do you want to work for them? Have you
> and the captains talked talked specifics?
>
> --
> Michael Press
The team is not optimal, and most everyone knows that, particularly
the captains. We have spoken about it and the idea is to have a 2-3
year perspective. This year is more or less to test the setup, and
have something to build upon next year. As far as wanting to work for
them, it is by far my best (only?) option for doing this race fast, so
I'm happy.
Joseph
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Date: 22 Jun 2007 06:33:10
From: joseph.santaniello@gmail.com
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
|
On Jun 22, 1:55 am, "Tom Kunich" <cyclintom@yahoo. com > wrote:
> <joseph.santanie...@gmail.com> wrote in message
>
> news:1182451464.941510.7340@k79g2000hse.googlegroups.com...
>
> > Here are my split times for last year:
> >http://results.ultimate.dk/live/front/splitdetails.php?e=322&t=www&l=...
> > and here are the splits for the current record holders:
> >http://results.ultimate.dk/live/front/splitdetails.php?e=157&t=www&l=...
> > That kind of puts it into perspective.
>
> Joe - if I were you I wouldn't be asking any advice here.
I'm not really looking for advice. I want Wild Ass Guesses! How long
will it take this time?
Joseph
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Date: 21 Jun 2007 13:35:39
From: joseph.santaniello@gmail.com
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
|
On Jun 21, 10:20 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Jun 21, 10:07 pm, "amit.gh...@gmail.com" <amit.gh...@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> > but, can you explain why tailwinds make a race more selective ?
>
> Headwinds allow weaker wheel suckers to hang onto stronger riders.
> Tailwinds reduce the advantage of wheel sucking so stronger riders can
> ride away. In a team TT, weaker riders tend to yo-yo off.
Enough of this chit-chat everybody! Let's hear some predictions/
guesses!
Joseph
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Date: 21 Jun 2007 13:24:16
From: joseph.santaniello@gmail.com
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
|
On Jun 21, 10:02 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Jun 21, 9:54 pm, Joseph wrote:
>
> > The headwind makes things go slower but for my own selfish needs
> > helps as it slows things up on the hills. Levels the playing field a
> > bit when the road tilts upward.
>
> Hills and tailwinds tend to expose and exacerbate differences in the
> abilities of the riders. Headwinds and downhills tend to equalize.
> Combine a hill with a tailwind, and that's bad news.
Downhills equalize to a point and only if sucking wheel is acceptable.
That's why in our team when we get to the 2 real descents, I along
with another heavy (95kg*) guy get to pull us down. The others are
probably riding their brakes behind us, but as a group we are going as
fast as possible. When the road is on a slight descent and we are
doing our rotation at 50km/h or more I and a few of the other bigger
riders are just cruising, while I see the smaller riders seriously
struggling to even pull in front of their guy when they get to the
front of the rotation. When the road is flat and we are going 40km/h
they don't have any problems.
* he has a huge motor since he is a former world class rower, so he
does not suffer as I do on the hills.
Joseph
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Date: 21 Jun 2007 13:20:50
From:
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
|
On Jun 21, 10:07 pm, "amit.gh...@gmail.com" <amit.gh...@gmail.com >
wrote:
> but, can you explain why tailwinds make a race more selective ?
Headwinds allow weaker wheel suckers to hang onto stronger riders.
Tailwinds reduce the advantage of wheel sucking so stronger riders can
ride away. In a team TT, weaker riders tend to yo-yo off.
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Date: 21 Jun 2007 13:14:57
From: joseph.santaniello@gmail.com
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
|
On Jun 21, 10:07 pm, "amit.gh...@gmail.com" <amit.gh...@gmail.com >
wrote:
> On Jun 21, 4:02 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> > On Jun 21, 9:54 pm, Joseph wrote:
>
> > > The headwind makes things go slower but for my own selfish needs
> > > helps as it slows things up on the hills. Levels the playing field a
> > > bit when the road tilts upward.
>
> > Hills and tailwinds tend to expose and exacerbate differences in the
> > abilities of the riders. Headwinds and downhills tend to equalize.
> > Combine a hill with a tailwind, and that's bad news.
>
> dumbass,
>
> changes in speed exacerbate differences.
>
> but, can you explain why tailwinds make a race more selective ?
Tailwinds lessen the advantage of drafting as the components of
resistance change their relative importance. This means weaker riders
who otherwise might have been able to suck wheel, get dropped on the
flats. Tailwinds up hills hurt the weaker riders because they are
weaker on hills because of their lower power to weight ratio. As the
speed goes up due to the tailwind, their deficiencies become more
apparent as the rate of vertical ascent increases.
Joseph
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Date: 21 Jun 2007 20:07:16
From: amit.ghosh@gmail.com
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
|
On Jun 21, 4:02 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Jun 21, 9:54 pm, Joseph wrote:
>
> > The headwind makes things go slower but for my own selfish needs
> > helps as it slows things up on the hills. Levels the playing field a
> > bit when the road tilts upward.
>
> Hills and tailwinds tend to expose and exacerbate differences in the
> abilities of the riders. Headwinds and downhills tend to equalize.
> Combine a hill with a tailwind, and that's bad news.
dumbass,
changes in speed exacerbate differences.
but, can you explain why tailwinds make a race more selective ?
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Date: 21 Jun 2007 13:02:48
From:
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
|
On Jun 21, 9:54 pm, Joseph wrote:
> The headwind makes things go slower but for my own selfish needs
> helps as it slows things up on the hills. Levels the playing field a
> bit when the road tilts upward.
Hills and tailwinds tend to expose and exacerbate differences in the
abilities of the riders. Headwinds and downhills tend to equalize.
Combine a hill with a tailwind, and that's bad news.
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Date: 21 Jun 2007 12:54:46
From: joseph.santaniello@gmail.com
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
|
On Jun 21, 9:41 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Jun 21, 8:33 pm, joseph wrote:
>
> > Ideally at least 24 guys should be in the roatation at
> > any time, with that number decreasing as guys get used up.
>
> Yikes.
>
> For team TTs, the pacing strategy is pretty tricky. You have to go
> easier on hills (which you know) and with a tailwind (which you may
> not have), or else you'll shatter your team.
A constant rotation is very hard to regulate the speed of too. The
terrain is on for the most part well graded roads, so the yo-yo effect
is pretty small and we can get a good rhythm going.
Perhaps the biggest problem is the rather wide range of fitness and
experience of the riders. The age range is 21 to 62, and the weight
range is from 55 to 98kg. I don't know the flat 10km ITT times but I
guess it ranges from 13:00 to 17:00. Should be interesting. We have
scheduled 3 stops, but we also get bottle hand-offs on some of the
hills.
The captain has never been a captain before, but he has ridden the
race with 2 well established teams several times so he knows how it
should be done. He has also 2 very good co-captains who know how this
should be done too, so even though there are a bunch of new guys, it
has the potential to go smoothly.
Right now the weather looks like rain and headwinds, temps from 9C to
15C. The headwind makes things go slower but for my own selfish needs
helps as it slows things up on the hills. Levels the playing field a
bit when the road tilts upward. I'm not too worried about getting
dropped on a hill, just in having to go too hard such that I burn up
too many calories that I won't be able to replenish and bonking
somewhere.
Joseph
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Date: 22 Jun 2007 01:46:58
From: Michael Press
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
|
In article
<1182455686.364012.295560@u2g2000hsc.googlegroups.com >,
"joseph.santaniello@gmail.com"
<joseph.santaniello@gmail.com > wrote:
> On Jun 21, 9:41 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> > On Jun 21, 8:33 pm, joseph wrote:
> >
> > > Ideally at least 24 guys should be in the roatation at
> > > any time, with that number decreasing as guys get used up.
> >
> > Yikes.
> >
> > For team TTs, the pacing strategy is pretty tricky. You have to go
> > easier on hills (which you know) and with a tailwind (which you may
> > not have), or else you'll shatter your team.
>
> A constant rotation is very hard to regulate the speed of too. The
> terrain is on for the most part well graded roads, so the yo-yo effect
> is pretty small and we can get a good rhythm going.
>
> Perhaps the biggest problem is the rather wide range of fitness and
> experience of the riders. The age range is 21 to 62, and the weight
> range is from 55 to 98kg. I don't know the flat 10km ITT times but I
> guess it ranges from 13:00 to 17:00. Should be interesting. We have
> scheduled 3 stops, but we also get bottle hand-offs on some of the
> hills.
>
> The captain has never been a captain before, but he has ridden the
> race with 2 well established teams several times so he knows how it
> should be done. He has also 2 very good co-captains who know how this
> should be done too, so even though there are a bunch of new guys, it
> has the potential to go smoothly.
>
> Right now the weather looks like rain and headwinds, temps from 9C to
> 15C. The headwind makes things go slower but for my own selfish needs
> helps as it slows things up on the hills. Levels the playing field a
> bit when the road tilts upward. I'm not too worried about getting
> dropped on a hill, just in having to go too hard such that I burn up
> too many calories that I won't be able to replenish and bonking
> somewhere.
Sounds like you do not trust your team. Are you having
second thoughts? Do you want to work for them? Have you
and the captains talked talked specifics?
--
Michael Press
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Date: 21 Jun 2007 12:41:22
From:
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
|
On Jun 21, 8:33 pm, joseph wrote:
> Ideally at least 24 guys should be in the roatation at
> any time, with that number decreasing as guys get used up.
Yikes.
For team TTs, the pacing strategy is pretty tricky. You have to go
easier on hills (which you know) and with a tailwind (which you may
not have), or else you'll shatter your team.
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Date: 21 Jun 2007 11:44:24
From: joseph.santaniello@gmail.com
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
|
On Jun 21, 7:39 pm, cyclin...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Jun 20, 10:13 am, "joseph.santanie...@gmail.com"
>
>
>
> <joseph.santanie...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > Hi All,
>
> > This weekend is my big race of the year. I amuse several of my riding
> > buddies with often quite accurate predictions of their (and my) times
> > over various courses, and now the pressure is on to predict our time
> > for this race. Little do they know that all I do is punch in data into
> > various online calculators and make some educated WAGs to arrive at my
> > predictions. This time I need help with my prediction, so anyone
> > interested give me your prediction and your reasoning. Whoever is
> > closest wins a postcard (at the least!).
>
> > The race is Trondheim-Oslo in Norway. 540km with 4,400m of total
> > ascent. Profile here:http://www.styrkeproven.no/upload/2006/loypeprofil=
/loypeprofil.pdf
>
> > The weather while perfect now is forecast (as usual) to be rain and
> > slight headwinds.
>
> > I have done the race 5 times with times from 24 hours down to 19. This
> > is the first time I will do the race as part of a team with organized
> > support cars, etc. The combination of the positive effect of support
> > logistics and riding with a team make any assesment based on my
> > previous performances not very useful. And I am WAY stonger now than
> > ever before. Our team is looking for sub 15 hours, and if the weather
> > cooperates that should be theoretically possible. Last time the team
> > (with about 10 of the current 29 members participating, the rest are
> > new guys myself included) managed 15:13. That same year a new record
> > was set by Rye of 13:28. This year we were 1 hour behind Rye in the
> > 230km Mj=F8sa Rundt a few weeks ago.
>
> > Our problem is we may overdo it the first 200km up to the mountain. In
> > our group rides the tendency has been to ride too fast and then for
> > (almost) everyone to not admit it afterward that they thought it was
> > too fast. So I full expect several guys to be used up already after
> > the first 200km. I think eating enough will also be a problem for
> > many. Our team captain has told me speciffically that I have to let
> > him know how I'm doing up the hill because I am particularly important
> > for the downhill/flat section from km 200 to 350. I'm pretty sure
> > I'll be fine at least to km 450 where the road gets more hilly and I
> > will perhaps have run dry. If I have to let go, it will probably be
> > there.
>
> > So the team's weakness is sub-optimal discipline, and perhaps too
> > ambitious a goal. My weakness is I may have to go too hard in the
> > beginning up the hill to keep up, such that I go empty earlier than
> > desired.
>
> > How fast will the team manage? Will I hold on to the finish? If not,
> > where will I let go and what will my time be?
>
> Unsupported you averaged 28 kph in a 540 km ride with 4400 m of
> climbing? I find that pretty hard to believe. I assume that didn't
> include the time spend in rest stops along the way.
Then you will also find it hard to believe that there were over 600
men and women who did it faster than me. My times were hardly in the
fast category. The times given include all stops. The race is an
organized thing so there are food depots ever 60km or so where you can
fill up water bottles, get bananas, jam sandwiches, and stuff. It's
not like I had to waste time going into a gas station to buy candy or
something. The average speed of the winners is about 40km/h including
stops. Oh yeah, I forgot the winning team doesn't stop. One of the
reasons they won the last 6 years in a row.
Here are my split times for last year:
http://results.ultimate.dk/live/front/splitdetails.php?e=3D322&t=3Dwww&l=3D=
no&Pid=3D994
and here are the splits for the current record holders:
http://results.ultimate.dk/live/front/splitdetails.php?e=3D157&t=3Dwww&l=3D=
dk&Pid=3D255
That kind of puts it into perspective.
Joseph
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Date: 21 Jun 2007 23:55:49
From: Tom Kunich
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
|
<joseph.santaniello@gmail.com > wrote in message
news:1182451464.941510.7340@k79g2000hse.googlegroups.com...
> Here are my split times for last year:
> http://results.ultimate.dk/live/front/splitdetails.php?e=322&t=www&l=no&Pid=994
> and here are the splits for the current record holders:
> http://results.ultimate.dk/live/front/splitdetails.php?e=157&t=www&l=dk&Pid=255
> That kind of puts it into perspective.
Joe - if I were you I wouldn't be asking any advice here.
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Date: 21 Jun 2007 11:33:37
From: joseph.santaniello@gmail.com
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
|
On Jun 21, 7:25 pm, rechungREMOVET...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Jun 20, 7:13 pm, joseph wrote:
>
> > The race is Trondheim-Oslo in Norway. 540km with 4,400m of total
> > ascent.
> > Last time the team
> > (with about 10 of the current 29 members participating, the rest are
> > new guys myself included) managed 15:13.
>
> How do you time a team? 15th guy? And how do you set up a rotation?
The team competition is officially the 10th guy's time. Or maybe the
cumulative of the top 10, I don't recall. Ideally 13-15 out of the 28
starters will finish together. The rotation is constant except it is
locked on hills and in dangerous sections like tunnels and successive
roundabouts. Ideally at least 24 guys should be in the roatation at
any time, with that number decreasing as guys get used up.
Joseph
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Date: 21 Jun 2007 10:39:50
From:
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
|
On Jun 20, 10:13 am, "joseph.santanie...@gmail.com"
<joseph.santanie...@gmail.com > wrote:
> Hi All,
>
> This weekend is my big race of the year. I amuse several of my riding
> buddies with often quite accurate predictions of their (and my) times
> over various courses, and now the pressure is on to predict our time
> for this race. Little do they know that all I do is punch in data into
> various online calculators and make some educated WAGs to arrive at my
> predictions. This time I need help with my prediction, so anyone
> interested give me your prediction and your reasoning. Whoever is
> closest wins a postcard (at the least!).
>
> The race is Trondheim-Oslo in Norway. 540km with 4,400m of total
> ascent. Profile here:http://www.styrkeproven.no/upload/2006/loypeprofil/l=
oypeprofil.pdf
>
> The weather while perfect now is forecast (as usual) to be rain and
> slight headwinds.
>
> I have done the race 5 times with times from 24 hours down to 19. This
> is the first time I will do the race as part of a team with organized
> support cars, etc. The combination of the positive effect of support
> logistics and riding with a team make any assesment based on my
> previous performances not very useful. And I am WAY stonger now than
> ever before. Our team is looking for sub 15 hours, and if the weather
> cooperates that should be theoretically possible. Last time the team
> (with about 10 of the current 29 members participating, the rest are
> new guys myself included) managed 15:13. That same year a new record
> was set by Rye of 13:28. This year we were 1 hour behind Rye in the
> 230km Mj=F8sa Rundt a few weeks ago.
>
> Our problem is we may overdo it the first 200km up to the mountain. In
> our group rides the tendency has been to ride too fast and then for
> (almost) everyone to not admit it afterward that they thought it was
> too fast. So I full expect several guys to be used up already after
> the first 200km. I think eating enough will also be a problem for
> many. Our team captain has told me speciffically that I have to let
> him know how I'm doing up the hill because I am particularly important
> for the downhill/flat section from km 200 to 350. I'm pretty sure
> I'll be fine at least to km 450 where the road gets more hilly and I
> will perhaps have run dry. If I have to let go, it will probably be
> there.
>
> So the team's weakness is sub-optimal discipline, and perhaps too
> ambitious a goal. My weakness is I may have to go too hard in the
> beginning up the hill to keep up, such that I go empty earlier than
> desired.
>
> How fast will the team manage? Will I hold on to the finish? If not,
> where will I let go and what will my time be?
Unsupported you averaged 28 kph in a 540 km ride with 4400 m of
climbing? I find that pretty hard to believe. I assume that didn't
include the time spend in rest stops along the way.
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Date: 21 Jun 2007 10:25:52
From:
Subject: Re: Predictions please.
|
On Jun 20, 7:13 pm, joseph wrote:
> The race is Trondheim-Oslo in Norway. 540km with 4,400m of total
> ascent.
> Last time the team
> (with about 10 of the current 29 members participating, the rest are
> new guys myself included) managed 15:13.
How do you time a team? 15th guy? And how do you set up a rotation?
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