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Date: 03 May 2007 18:12:05
From: Bob Martin
Subject: Tour de Romandie, stage 2 summary
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Changes in stage 2 compared to stage 1
Biggest gainers by position :
+27 Robbie McEwen
+27 Aitor Galdos Alonso
+24 Nazareno Rossi
+20 Sebastiaan Langeveld
+18 Ian McLeod
+18 Fabio Sacchi
+18 Cyril Dessel
+18 Christophe Le Mével
+18 Christophe Kern
+18 Benjamin Noval Gonzalez
Biggest losers by position :
-67 Gorka Verdugo Marcotegui
-47 Bernhard Kohl
-34 Gorazd Stangelj
-31 Ivan Ramiro Parra Pinto
-23 Alessandro Proni
-19 Arnaud Gérard
-14 Jaime Castaneda
-13 Frantisek Rabon
-13 Frédéric Bessy
-12 David Loosli
-11 Brett Lancaster
Biggest gainers by time :
+0:10 Robbie McEwen
+0:06 Borut Bozic
+0:04 Patrick Calcagni
+0:04 Enrico Gasparotto
+0:02 Chris Horner
+0:01 Sandy Casar
Biggest losers by time :
-8:28 Arnaud Gérard
-8:28 Cyrille Monnerais
-8:28 Kai Reus
-8:28 Marcel Strauss
-8:28 Nick Gates
-8:28 Pierre Drancourt
-8:28 Raffaele Ferrara
-8:28 Sebastian Schwager
-8:28 Timothy Gudsell
-8:28 Yon Bru Pascal
-7:36 Danilo Napolitano
Favourites by position :
+7 Victor Hugo Pena Grisales
+6 Bobby Julich
+4 David Millar
+3 Mikel Astarloza Chaurreau
+3 Manuel Beltran Martinez
+3 Leonardo Piepoli
+3 Laurent Brochard
+3 José Luis Rubiera Vigil
+3 Giuseppe Guerini
+3 Denis Menchov
+3 David Moncoutié
+3 Christophe Moreau
+2 Serhiy Honchar
+2 Pietro Caucchioli
+2 Haimar Zubeldia Agirre
+2 Chris Horner
+2 Carlos Sastre Candil
-1 Sandy Casar
-2 Cadel Evans
Favourites by time :
+0:02 Chris Horner
+0:01 Sandy Casar
Top 3 and favourites standings :
1 Paolo Savoldelli 8.15.14
2 Roman Kreuziger 0.05
3 Chris Horner 0.05
.....
5 Sandy Casar 0.06
.....
16 Cadel Evans 0.14
.....
22 Oscar Pereiro Sio 0.16
.....
37 Haimar Zubeldia Agirre 0.19
38 Pietro Caucchioli 0.19
39 Serhiy Honchar 0.19
.....
42 Carlos Sastre Candil 0.20
.....
49 Mikel Astarloza Chaurreau 0.21
.....
55 Denis Menchov 0.22
.....
57 Giuseppe Guerini 0.23
.....
60 Christophe Moreau 0.24
61 David Moncoutié 0.24
.....
65 Laurent Brochard 0.25
.....
70 Manuel Beltran Martinez 0.33
.....
74 Leonardo Piepoli 0.38
.....
78 José Luis Rubiera Vigil 0.43
.....
86 David Millar 3.48
87 Bobby Julich 3.50
.....
96 Victor Hugo Pena Grisales 3.56
Retirements to date :
AG2r Prévoyance José Luis Arrieta Lujambio
" Ludovic Turpin
" Simon Gerrans
" Sylvain Calzati
Lampre - Fondital Tadej Valjavec
Rabobank Jan Boven
T-Mobile Team Michael Rogers
Total retirements : 7
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Date: 04 May 2007 03:19:38
From: Tuschinski
Subject: Re: Tour de Romandie, stage 2 summary
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On May 3, 9:11 pm, Dan Connelly <d_j_c_o_n_n_e_l@y_a_h_o_o_._c_o_m >
wrote:
>
> The cut-off is based on a percentage of time, so shorter distances don't necessarily imply it is easier to finish within a given % threshold.
>
I thought there were different formulas considering distance, esp for
mountain stages. I also thought that prologues have a different
formula as it is quite easy to go over the treshold with a fall/defect/
flat tire.
It's easy to see that a one KM trial would be disastrous if you had a
flat... bike change 10 seconds, getting into rythm at least 10
seconds.... considering the winner uses 60 seconds you would already
be at 33% even if you were as fast as the winner. So in this case I
assume that there is a different mechanism here.
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Date: 04 May 2007 12:31:59
From: Dan Connelly
Subject: Re: Tour de Romandie, stage 2 summary
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Tuschinski wrote:
> On May 3, 9:11 pm, Dan Connelly <d_j_c_o_n_n_e_l@y_a_h_o_o_._c_o_m>
> wrote:
>
>> The cut-off is based on a percentage of time, so shorter distances don't necessarily imply it is easier to finish within a given % threshold.
>>
>
> I thought there were different formulas considering distance, esp for
> mountain stages. I also thought that prologues have a different
> formula as it is quite easy to go over the treshold with a fall/defect/
> flat tire.
Right -- there's many categories in the 2005 rules I referenced. Here's 1990:
http://www.faqs.org/faqs/bicycles-faq/part1/section-24.html
For which, BTW, there's no time limit for the prologue.
Here's 2006, which I found only through Google, as the LeTour site seems to have orphaned the 2006 pages:
http://www.letour.com/2006/TDF/LIVE/docs/reglement_2006_us.pdf
Frankly, I think the present rules are a bit silly, and could be simplified with little loss of generality. For example, except for time trials, for which a 25% cut-off seems to work fairly well:
delta_t = 3 minutes + 0.1 * [(distance / 42kph) + (total climbing + finishing climb) / (20 meters/minute) ] * (speed / 42 kph)
So a flat stage averaging 45 kph for 170 km:
29 minutes = 12.8%
The same stage, averaged 36 kph: 8.4%
The same distance, with 4000 meters of climbing, ending on a descent, with 36 kph average: 14.4%
The same distance, 34 kph average, finishing with an 800 meter climb out of 4000 total meters: 14.0%
These numbers are in the ballpark of the official cut-offs.
Hard to calculate on the bike, though, I suppose...
> It's easy to see that a one KM trial would be disastrous if you had a
> flat... bike change 10 seconds, getting into rythm at least 10
> seconds.... considering the winner uses 60 seconds you would already
> be at 33% even if you were as fast as the winner. So in this case I
> assume that there is a different mechanism here.
>
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Date: 03 May 2007 11:20:33
From: paolo
Subject: Re: Tour de Romandie, stage 2 summary
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McEwen comes in dead last in the prologue...and then clears the field
in the stage 2 sprint. Got to love his priorities.
I thought McEwen might not make the time cut after his prologue
performance (now that would be hilarious given it was only a 3.5k
ride). He was 1:30 behind the winner that day.
On May 3, 11:12 am, Bob Martin <bob.mar...@excite.com > wrote:
> Changes in stage 2 compared to stage 1
>
> Biggest gainers by position :
> +27 Robbie McEwen
> +27 Aitor Galdos Alonso
> +24 Nazareno Rossi
> +20 Sebastiaan Langeveld
> +18 Ian McLeod
> +18 Fabio Sacchi
> +18 Cyril Dessel
> +18 Christophe Le M=E9vel
> +18 Christophe Kern
> +18 Benjamin Noval Gonzalez
>
> Biggest losers by position :
> -67 Gorka Verdugo Marcotegui
> -47 Bernhard Kohl
> -34 Gorazd Stangelj
> -31 Ivan Ramiro Parra Pinto
> -23 Alessandro Proni
> -19 Arnaud G=E9rard
> -14 Jaime Castaneda
> -13 Frantisek Rabon
> -13 Fr=E9d=E9ric Bessy
> -12 David Loosli
> -11 Brett Lancaster
>
> Biggest gainers by time :
> +0:10 Robbie McEwen
> +0:06 Borut Bozic
> +0:04 Patrick Calcagni
> +0:04 Enrico Gasparotto
> +0:02 Chris Horner
> +0:01 Sandy Casar
>
> Biggest losers by time :
> -8:28 Arnaud G=E9rard
> -8:28 Cyrille Monnerais
> -8:28 Kai Reus
> -8:28 Marcel Strauss
> -8:28 Nick Gates
> -8:28 Pierre Drancourt
> -8:28 Raffaele Ferrara
> -8:28 Sebastian Schwager
> -8:28 Timothy Gudsell
> -8:28 Yon Bru Pascal
> -7:36 Danilo Napolitano
>
> Favourites by position :
> +7 Victor Hugo Pena Grisales
> +6 Bobby Julich
> +4 David Millar
> +3 Mikel Astarloza Chaurreau
> +3 Manuel Beltran Martinez
> +3 Leonardo Piepoli
> +3 Laurent Brochard
> +3 Jos=E9 Luis Rubiera Vigil
> +3 Giuseppe Guerini
> +3 Denis Menchov
> +3 David Moncouti=E9
> +3 Christophe Moreau
> +2 Serhiy Honchar
> +2 Pietro Caucchioli
> +2 Haimar Zubeldia Agirre
> +2 Chris Horner
> +2 Carlos Sastre Candil
> -1 Sandy Casar
> -2 Cadel Evans
>
> Favourites by time :
> +0:02 Chris Horner
> +0:01 Sandy Casar
>
> Top 3 and favourites standings :
> 1 Paolo Savoldelli 8.15.14
> 2 Roman Kreuziger 0.05
> 3 Chris Horner 0.05
> .....
> 5 Sandy Casar 0.06
> .....
> 16 Cadel Evans 0.14
> .....
> 22 Oscar Pereiro Sio 0.16
> .....
> 37 Haimar Zubeldia Agirre 0.19
> 38 Pietro Caucchioli 0.19
> 39 Serhiy Honchar 0.19
> .....
> 42 Carlos Sastre Candil 0.20
> .....
> 49 Mikel Astarloza Chaurreau 0.21
> .....
> 55 Denis Menchov 0.22
> .....
> 57 Giuseppe Guerini 0.23
> .....
> 60 Christophe Moreau 0.24
> 61 David Moncouti=E9 0.24
> .....
> 65 Laurent Brochard 0.25
> .....
> 70 Manuel Beltran Martinez 0.33
> .....
> 74 Leonardo Piepoli 0.38
> .....
> 78 Jos=E9 Luis Rubiera Vigil 0.43
> .....
> 86 David Millar 3.48
> 87 Bobby Julich 3.50
> .....
> 96 Victor Hugo Pena Grisales 3.56
>
> Retirements to date :
> AG2r Pr=E9voyance Jos=E9 Luis Arrieta Lujambio
> " Ludovic Turpin
> " Simon Gerrans
> " Sylvain Calzati
> Lampre - Fondital Tadej Valjavec
> Rabobank Jan Boven
> T-Mobile Team Michael Rogers
> Total retirements : 7
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Date: 03 May 2007 19:11:26
From: Dan Connelly
Subject: Re: Tour de Romandie, stage 2 summary
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paolo wrote:
> McEwen comes in dead last in the prologue...and then clears the field
> in the stage 2 sprint. Got to love his priorities.
>
> I thought McEwen might not make the time cut after his prologue
> performance (now that would be hilarious given it was only a 3.5k
> ride). He was 1:30 behind the winner that day.
The cut-off is based on a percentage of time, so shorter distances don't necessarily imply it is easier to finish within a given % threshold.
But in this case, McEwen's time exceeded Paolo's by 32.7%.
The cut-off in individual time trials in the 2005 Tour de France, for example, was 25% (see page 12):
http://www.letour.com/2005/TDF/LIVE/docs/reglement_2005_us.pdf
There was no prologue that year, however: the state 1 ITT was prologue-like.
Dan
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